Week of October 29, 2007
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September Sales Show Progress on Reducing New-Home Inventory

Sales of new single-family homes rose 4.8% in September, recovering a portion of the substantial ground they lost in the previous month, according to data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Oct. 25. Sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 units following major downward revisions to figures for the previous three months.

“While tough conditions remain in the nation’s housing markets, home builders are taking decisive action to reduce inventories through special sales incentives and sweetened deals,” said NAHB President Brian Catalde. “We’re pulling out all the stops to entice potential buyers back into the market, and today’s report suggests that those efforts are bearing some fruit.”

“Given the substantial downward revisions to home sales numbers for June, July and August, it must be said that this is still a fundamentally weak report,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. “Moreover, the large sales gains reported in the West region are highly suspicious, given the results of our own builder surveys and large downward movements in existing-home sales in that region.”

“On the positive side, builders do seem to be making progress on reducing the substantial overhang of unsold units on the market, according to the latest figures,” Seiders said.

The inventory of new homes for sale edged down for a sixth consecutive month in September to 523,000 units as builders cut back on the pace of housing starts and aggressively stepped up sales incentives. The inventory overhang amounts to an 8.3-month supply at the current sales pace, still high on a historical basis but down from a nine-month supply in August.

Regional numbers for new-home sales, which can display significant month-to-month volatility, showed a 37.7% gain in the West, a marginal 0.5% gain in the South and declines of 6.6% and 19.5% in the Northeast and Midwest, respectively.

Seiders noted that there’s still downward momentum in the single-family housing market, and the reported increase in new-home sales for September should not deter the Federal Reserve from enacting another interest rate cut at the Oct. 30-31 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.



Want to Know the Housing Forecast for the Top 100 Metros? 

Find out in HousingEconomic.com’s 2008 to 2009 Metro Forecast (free preview).

Get the metro forecast with in-depth analysis, overviews and downloadable Excel tables.

To learn more, visit www.HousingEconomics.com.



Free NAHB Kit Gives Builders Back-to-Basics Tips in Navigate the Slowdown

What was once expected to be a relatively mild housing slump following three years of record new home construction and sales has given way to a significant downturn.

To help members navigate the uncharted waters of this slowdown, NAHB has compiled a comprehensive “Back to Basics” online toolkit — the best of the basics, the tried and true and the truly new. To access the toolkit, click here.

To access the “Back to Basics” toolkit, you must be an NAHB member and have a login to www.nahb.org. To create a login, go to www.nahb.org/login or click on the log-in button on the main menu bar.

For assistance, call the NAHB Member Service Center at 800-368-5242.

 
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