State and Local Reporter - 10/02/2008 (Plain Text Version)

Bob Frost, Chair
Blue Springs, Missouri

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In this issue:
Vegas Case Exposes Alleged Corruption Among Local Homeowner Associations
SLGA Conference 'Early Bird' Registration Deadline Is Oct. 3
NAHB State & Local Issues Fund Continues to Help Builders
9th Circuit Court of Appeals Upholds Arizona’s Immigration Statute
Fire Official Surge Sweeps Sprinkler Mandate to Victory
County Leaders Express Support for Housing Industry
Philadelphia Foreclosure Program an Example for Cities
NACo Releases Results of Foreclosure Survey
Studies Find New Homes Are Tiny Piece of Carbon Footprint Solution
New Study Shows Growth in State Lobbying
2008 Election Summary

2008 Election Summary

This November, voters in 11 states will elect governors, 7 will elect secretaries of state and 11 will choose attorneys general while some 5,800 state legislative seats will be filled in 44 states.

More than 100 statewide ballot questions will be up for a vote.

Democrats now control 55% of legislative seats nationwide. Seventy-nine percent of all state legislative seats are up for election this fall.

The top 10 battleground states where political control could turn over in at least one chamber are:

Montana
Nevada
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Delaware
New York
Indiana
Oklahoma
Tennessee

Because state lawmakers draw congressional maps once a decade after the U.S. Census, stakes are high this election year. The first wave of legislators who will take part in the 2011 redistricting process – senators in states with four-year senatorial terms — will be elected this fall.

A breakdown of Governor's races:

Vulnerable
Missouri (R), Open seat*
North Carolina (D), Open seat**
Washington (D), Christine Gregoire

Worth watching
Indiana (R), Mitch Daniels
Vermont (R), Jim Douglas

Safe
Delaware (D), Open seat**
Montana (D), Brian Schweitzer
New Hampshire (D), John Lynch
North Dakota (R), John Hoeven
Utah (R), Jon Huntsman, Jr.
West Virginia (D), Joe Manchin III

*Caused by Gov. Matt Blunt not running
** Caused by term limits

Details
Vulnerable

Missouri: Jay Nixon (D), Missouri’s attorney general, is still favored in the race to succeed the retiring Gov. Matt Blunt (R). Nixon faces U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof.
North Carolina: Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue (D) is, at best, neck and neck with Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R).
Washington state: A rematch of a close 2004 contest between challenger Dino Rossi (R) and Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire. An automated SurveyUSA poll in early September found Rossi, once consistently trailing in the race, is ahead of Gregoire 48% to 47%.

Worth Watching

Indiana: In Indiana, incumbent GOP Gov. Mitch Daniels once looked vulnerable, but he’s so outpaced his Democratic challenger, former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson, in recent months that it’s no longer fair to call him vulnerable.
Vermont: Republican Gov. Jim Douglas, a moderate, is favored to keep his seat despite a likely surge of support for Obama this fall. His challenger, Democratic House Speaker Gaye Symington’s problem is a third-party candidate of the left, Anthony Pollina, who is poised to split the liberal vote. A quirk that could benefit Symington is that under Vermont law, a gubernatorial race ending in a plurality goes to the House — the very House that Symington presides over.

Safe

Delaware: State Treasurer Jack Markell will face retired Superior Court Judge Bill Lee (R) and independent Mike Protack.
Montana: Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) is out-pacing his Republican challenger, state legislator and businessman Roy Brown.
New Hampshire: Gov. John Lynch (D) should easily defeat state Sen. Joe Kenney and Libertarian Susan Newell.
North Dakota: Gov. John Hoeven (R) is expected to beat state Sen. Tim Mathern (D) on his way to a third term.
Utah: Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. (R) is expected to easily win reelection over Bob Springmeyer (D), a Salt Lake City management consultant.
West Virginia: Gov. Joe Manchin (D) should easily defeat ex-State Sen. Russ Weeks (R).