Monday Morning Briefing Letter - 11/10/2008 (Plain Text Version)By Sandy Dunn, NAHB Chairman and View Graphical Version
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| E-mail Our Editor An historic election season has come to a close,and NAHB looks forward to working with the next Administration and Congress to advance new efforts aimed at reviving the housing market and economy. Congratulating Barack Obama on his election as the nation's 44th President and newly elected members of Congress on their successful bids, NAHB issued a statement on Nov. 6 reiterating the need for immediate action on a second economic recovery package that includes substantial home buying incentives in order to restore consumer confidence and help get the economy back on track. In addition to significantly expanding the first-time home buyer tax credit and making it available to all home buyers, NAHB is also asking Congress to consider offering a government buydown of interest rates on mortgages for those who purchase a home in 2009. NAHB President and CEO Jerry Howard explained that "Getting consumers off the sidelines will reduce the inventory of unsold homes, stop the erosion of home values in hard-hit markets and result in more new and existing home sales in the months ahead, restoring housing as an essential driver of growth in the nation's economy." Read NAHB's official statement here or contact Michael Strauss, x8252. NAHB had another very successful election cyclewith respect to our BUILD-PAC-supported candidates and Issues Mobilization efforts on Nov. 4. Out of 363 House and Senate candidates that we supported, 330 have won their elective office, making for a 91% overall success rate. This outcome helps position NAHB to work with the incoming Congress and Administration and cements our position as one of the most powerful lobbying groups in Washington. On our Issues Mobilization efforts, NAHB's position won out in 26 of 33 cases. Perhaps our most notable victory on this front occurred with the overwhelming defeat of Proposition 201 in Arizona, which would have nullified certain provisions of Notice and Opportunity to Repair legislation that was signed into law in 2003. The final tally on the measure was 22% in favor, 78% against. Congratulations to the Arizona builders, who worked alongside NAHB and the High Production Home Builders, to achieve this very favorable outcome! For more info on BUILD-PAC-supported candidates, contact Cheryl Caulfield at x8110; for info on our Issues Mobilization efforts, contact: Karl Eckhart, x8126. [return to top] The housing downswing has further to run,says NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders in his latest Eye on the Economy report. While the bulk of the multi-year housing contraction undoubtedly is behind us, Dave noted, projected economic and financial market conditions, combined with evidence of persistent oversupply in home owner and rental markets, point toward further declines in home sales and housing production in coming quarters. "It’s true that sales of both new and existing single-family homes perked up in September, but it’s unlikely that those moves reflected fundamental stabilization of housing demand," he says. Existing-home sales are being buoyed by sales of foreclosed homes, at fire sale prices, through multiple-listing services — hardly a sign of market vitality. And the small September bounce in new-home sales followed a sizable downward revision in August, leaving the downward trend intact. NAHB now expects a bottom for new-home sales in the first quarter of 2009, followed by a tepid recovery process over the balance of the year. Housing starts probably won’t hit bottom until mid-2009, and tightness in markets for land development and construction loans certainly will limit the vigor of the subsequent recovery, said Dave. He also noted that another economic stimulus plan, designed to reduce the imbalance between housing demand and housing supply, is urgently needed to break the downward spiral in house prices and to stabilize economic and financial market conditions. "A strong tax incentive for home buying should be at the top of the list of options considered by the Congress immediately after the elections," he asserts. Read Dave's complete report and sign up to receive Eye on the Economy in your email here. [return to top] More reasons not to miss the 2009 IBS...Think radically about industry education programs from The NAHB University of Housing and embrace new ways to navigate the downturn and strengthen your company while attending the 2009 International Builders’ Show in Las Vegas this January. Designation Courses Plan to participate in one or more of the IBS pre-show designation courses. Brush up on a particular subject or work towards one of NAHB's 16 professional designations to increase your industry knowledge and stay ahead of the competition. For a complete listing of courses and descriptions, and to register, visit www.BuildersShow.com/PreShow. All-Day Events on Monday, Jan. 19
For more information about the designation courses, education sessions and special all-day education events at IBS, visit www.BuildersShow.com/Education. [return to top] Register now for upcoming NAHB audio seminars on financing!
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