Monday Morning Briefing Letter - 12/10/2007 (Plain Text Version)

By Brian Catalde, NAHB President and
Jerry Howard, NAHB Executive VP and CEO

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A burst of encouraging news for the housing market

came this week with the Bush Administration's announcement of a landmark initiative to help struggling borrowers stay in their homes and the release of two important reports from key research groups at UCLA and Harvard.

Seeking to limit the number of anticipated home foreclosures in the coming year and reassure financial markets, President Bush on Dec. 6 announced his Administration's plan to work with lenders and investors to freeze mortgage interest rates for five years for certain home owners. The initiative, which Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson alluded to in comments at a National Housing Forum last week, would only apply to home owners who took out adjustable-rate subprime mortgages between January 1, 2005 and July 31 of this year and who face a significant upward adjustment in their mortgage rates over the next two years. NAHB strongly supports the plan, and in a public statement released on the day it was announced, noted that it is "one of several steps that can help stabilize the housing market and reassure consumers and investors in the mortgage market." NAHB President Brian Catalde also urged Congress to follow up quickly with pending legislation that would provide additonal help in easing the credit crunch, including bills dealing with FHA reform, regulatory oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the elimination of taxes on mortgage debt forgiven as part of a loan workout.

Separately, two studies released by UCLA and Harvard this week provided some additional positive news. The quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast predicted that California and the U.S. will weather the housing downturn without a national recession. The Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Studies' report, "Projecting the Underlying Demand for New Housing Units: Inferences From the Past, Assumptions About the Future," predicts that even with the large inventory of unsold homes on the market today, the long-term demand for new housing will run at a strong clip of 1.82 million units per year between 2008 and 2014. Says the Harvard report:

"Do not mistake short-term reactions to the housing slowdown as a harbinger of things to come for the long-term. On the strength of demographically-driven demand for housing, the market will bounce back from its currently suppressed levels."  

Such words of wisdom are quite welcome this holiday season. Read more in the next NBN Online. Contact: Jay Shackford (x8406).

Want to go for a green test-drive?

The NAHBGreen online certification program for green building projects is being prepared for launch as a critical component of the NAHB National Green Building Program that will be rolled out at February's International Builders' Show, and in the meantime, NAHB members are encouraged to take it for a spin. The Web site with the certification tool, at www.nahbgreen.org, is still partially under development by the NAHB Research Center, so not every link is active yet. But when it's finished, it will provide a wide variety of resources and educational offerings as well as a directory of green builders, green projects and local green building programs. It will also offer tools for local HBAs that are ready to set up their own programs, including sample documents and case studies gleaned from programs that are already up and running and have certified more than 10,000 homes. Remember, more improvements are being made to the site all the time, so check back often!

NAHB Member Benefit: NAHB members who are interested in receiving more information about the green certification tool and related subjects can sign up for the Green Building Program Update e-newsletter by sending an email to greenbuilding@nahb.com or contacting Calli Schmidt at x8132. [return to top]

Remodeling activity edged up in the third quarter

according to the current market conditions component of NAHB's latest Remodeling Market Index (RMI), released Dec. 5. Meanwhile, the future expectations component of the index registered only a marginal decline from the second quarter. In fact, said NAHB Remodelers Chairman Mike Nagel, "The remodeling market is expected to end the year in pretty good shape," buoyed by continuing strong demand for minor additions and alterations. Nagel noted that the remodeling market, though down a bit in recent months, is not experiencing the dip in production and sales being seen by the new home building sector of the industry. Nationally, according to the RMI, minor additions and alterations increased significantly during the third quarter, while major additions and alterations remained stable. On a regional basis, minor additions and alterations were up significantly for the period in the Northeast and Midwest. Read more in our press release or see the RMI tables online. Contact: Kelly Mack, x8451.

NAHB Member Benefit: NAHB's economic surveys and analysis help our members achieve a better understanding of current market trends and where they are headed, while our media outreach in this regard helps to firmly establish NAHB as the credible source of information on the housing industry nationwide. This credibility with the media ensures that accurate data on the housing market is transmitted to potential home buyers and owners, thereby ensuring that they have the best information in front of them when deciding to buy or renovate a new or existing home. [return to top]

Join us for Green Day at the International Builders' Show

on Feb. 14, when the new NAHB National Green Building Program and the new University of Housing Certified Green Professional designation are officially unveiled. Well-known green architect William McDonough will be our featured speaker that morning, and the educational schedule is filled with green-related seminars and presentations. In addition, we'll be holding at least four press conferences on the new program, green design and building trends, and news about the National Green Building Standard, which should be about ready for publication at the IBS. We'll also be celebrating the 25th anniversary of The New American Home, which will be the first show home to be certified under NAHB's National Green Building Program. Green will truly be the color of the day on Feb. 14, so jump on the bandwagon and see what the IBS has to offer!  If you haven't already registered for the IBS, now is the time. Simply visit www.BuildersShow.com. Please direct any questions you may have about the NAHB National Green Building Program to John Ritterpursch (x8325), Emily English (x8366), or Lauren Forgacs (x8375).

NAHB Member Benefit: NAHB is committed to helping our members take advantage of arising opportunities in green building while avoiding inflexible, unworkable and costly mandates. For the latest developments in our efforts to create a national green building program, visit www.nahb.org/greenbuildingprogram, or contact Calli Schmidt at x8132.   [return to top]

Clarification: A mandatory fire sprinkler proposal for New York

single-family homes has been rejected by the New York State Residential Code Technical Subcommittee. Last week we told you about the New York State Builders Association's great achievement, with help from NAHB staff, in educating code officials about the many concerns revolving around mandated fire sprinkler systems. Citing unresolved technical issues and the negative impact on housing affordability, the technical subcommittee rejected a proposal that would have recommended to the full New York State Uniform Fire and Building Code Council that residential fire sprinklers be required for one- and two-family homes under the 2009 state residential code. However, the story inadvertently indicated that the proposal was rejected at the full committee level, which was not the case and is an important distinction. We apologize to our readers for this oversight and hope to clarify the report by pointing you to full coverage of the story in the Dec. 3 edition of NBN Online. For further information, please contact Lewis Dubuque, director of communications and government relations for the NYSBA, at (518) 465-2492, x113. [return to top]

Award news:


1. Excellence in Marketing and Home Design Award Winners

2. The Nationals - Silver and Regional Category Award Winners

3. EnergyValue Housing Award Finalists

4. 2007 Livable Communities Award Winners

5. 2008 Best of 50+ Housing Award Entries

6. 2008 NAHB National Green Building Award Entries [return to top]


For more information or to contact us directly, please visit www.NAHB.org | ©2007, National Association of Home Builders