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Housing markets with the biggest booms in 2004 and 2005 will generally be the slowest to return to normal levels of activity and those that showed more restraint will be the first to get back on track, according to the 2007-2008 Metro Starts Forecast for single-family production released by HousingEconomics.com this week.

The major exception is the Midwest, the hardest-hit region of the country where some key markets that have been languishing because of weak local economies aren’t likely to see brighter horizons until next year as job and income growth gradually improve.

The report notes that the correction that started last year has affected different markets to different degrees, “but even markets with few signs of over-heating during the boom have slowed considerably.”

“Nationally, the pace of housing starts in the first quarter of 2007 was down more than 30% from its peak in the third quarter of 2005,” the housing analysts say in an overview of their state and metro area housing starts forecast. “In local markets, half of the 100 largest metropolitan statistical areas that NAHB forecasts were down between 15% and 40% from their 2005 level of production, while some of the most severely affected markets were down 50% or more from their 2005 highs.”

Nationally, NAHB is forecasting almost 1.16 million single-family housing starts in 2007, a 32% decline from a peak of almost 1.72 million in 2005, and 1.23 million in 2008, down 28%.

Double-digit rates of house price appreciation in 2004 and 2005 on the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's House Price Index (HPI) “clearly indicate markets out of balance,” the report notes. Metro areas with prices climbing the fastest between the fourth quarter of 2003 and the same period of 2005 include: Naples, Fla. (70.5%); Bakersfield, Calif. (70.3%); Palm Beach, Fla., (67.4%); Cape Coral, Fla. (66.4%); and Phoenix (63.5%).

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For the full report, including downloadable Excel tables of total single-family and multifamily housing starts by regions and states,  click here. (Available for HousingEconomics subscribers only )

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Building Permits and Employment data by State and Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), are available for download (Excel tables).

Also available for HousingEconomics.com subscribers:

• Annual Population by Metro Areas (1980-2005)   -NEW!

• Annual Building Permit Numbers for Metropolitan Statistical Areas (1980-2005) 

• Annual Employment Numbers for Metropolitan Statistical Areas (1990-2005) 

Mark your calendar for the NAHB Fall Construction Forecast Conference scheduled for October 24, 2007 at the National Housing Center.

Look ahead with the Home Builders Forecasts by region and type such as:

• State and Metro Forecasts — Includes Starts Forecast, Excel tables of Total, Single-Family, and Multifamily Housing Starts by Regions, States, and the Top 100 Metropolitan areas (See free samples).

• Executive-Level Forecast — Monthly forecast of economic activity, inflation, interest rates, and housing activity; the Executive-level forecasts contain an executive summary, in-depth detail, and historical data with annual and quarterly forecasts for all indicators (Sample).

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