Nation's Building News Online: October 29, 2007Print All Articles Text Version |
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'Modest' Housing Recovery Forecast to Begin in 2008Though there appears to be no let-up to the current housing downswing, economists participating in the NAHB Construction Forecast Conference in Washington, D.C. on Oct. 24 said they expect the industry to bottom out and to start turning around in 2008. Acknowledging that there is definitely downward momentum in the market at this time — with starts, sales, prices and permits off and problems persisting in the subprime and Alt-A mortgage markets — NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders said that housing should nevertheless begin a modest recovery next year. Despite the present market contraction, Seiders said that housing should begin to turn around next year for a number of reasons — the overall economy and job growth continue to move ahead at a decent pace, core inflation is under control, the late-summer credit crunch in mortgage markets is showing signs of easing since the Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates on Sept. 18, and the supply-demand equation will be better balanced as builders begin to whittle down excess inventories. He also noted that the evolving inflation picture gives the Fed latitude to enact more monetary stimulus to support the economy, if conditions warrant. Seiders is predicting that the Fed will cut short-term interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point when members of the Federal Open Market Committee meet on Oct. 31 and will enact a similar rate cut by year-end, bringing the federal funds rate down from the current 4.75% to 4.25%. Starts and Permits Won't Move Forward Until Sales Firm Up With the housing sector facing a large backlog of unsold inventory, Seiders said that starts and permits won’t begin to move forward until sales firm up. “Home sales should bottom out by the end of the first quarter of 2008, and I have starts up in the third quarter of next year, assuming the inventory overhang stabilizes,” he said. Residential fixed investment, which Seiders said could lop off as much as 0.8% from growth in the Gross Domestic Product this year, should stop acting as a drag on the economy and turn positive in the fourth quarter of 2008, he added. NAHB is forecasting 828,000 new single-family home sales for 2007 and 781,000 next year, a 5.6% decline. Seiders noted that the peak-to-trough decline in home sales from the boom years of 2003 to 2005 is more than 40%, and as sales begin to move slowly upward beginning in the second quarter of next year, they will still only be on par with levels recorded in the late 1990s. Total housing starts are expected to register 1.363 million in 2007 and 1.2 million next year, an 11.9% decline, according to NAHB projections. Single-family starts, Seiders said, are expected to show a 50% decline from their peak in the first quarter of 2006 to a trough in next year’s second quarter. Seiders’ short-term forecast is based on several assumptions ― skillful management of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, maintenance of solid growth in personal income and employment, a manageable wave of home mortgage foreclosures and better performance of mortgage markets going forward. However, he observed that the long-term potential for housing activity is very good. “By the end of 2009, we may be at a pace of 1.5 million units of new housing production (including manufactured homes). Once we are out of the woods, we should see good growth in front of us — maybe 2 million per year.”
Foreclosures May Hamper Housing Recovery Agreeing that the housing market trough is in sight, Maury Harris, managing director and chief economist at UBS Investment Bank, said that he sees “housing bottoming out in the first half of 2008 and starting to pick up in the second half of the year.” The last time a housing recession was this serious was in the mid-1960s, Harris said, but the big difference between then and now is that “the Fed is not dealing with inflation.” Like Seiders, he sees the federal funds rate dropping to 4.25% by year-end and holding steady through 2008. In forecasting total housing starts of 1.37 million this year and 1.24 million in 2008, Harris said that the housing recovery will be hampered by a projected 500,000 foreclosures on subprime and Alt-A loans both this year and next. “The foreclosures aggravate the inventory situation and weigh on the market more than in past cycles,” he said. Harris expects home prices in the current housing cycle to “go down as much as 10%, though we are not there yet ― only at about 4%.” Subprime Troubles Only 3% of Total Mortgage Market Taking a “less negative” spin on the housing market, Michael Moran, chief economist of Daiwa Securities America Inc., said that most of the reporting in the media is “exaggerated” and “sensationalized.”
Specifically, he cited the overemphasis on subprime mortgages, which make up 13.5% of the market, compared to prime lending, with a 75% market share. “Twenty percent of the subprime market is under stress,” said Moran. “Twenty percent of 13% is less than 3% of the total mortgage market. The economy should absorb this shock.” In light of the huge run-up in home prices that occurred in many housing markets between 2000 and 2005, the current home price adjustment is “not especially alarming,” he said. “We are seeing a gradual correction in home prices,” Moran said. “So far, in my view, housing prices are holding up reasonably well.” Foreclosures Will Be Absorbed As for the high number of foreclosures expected this year and next, Moran said the economic fallout will not be as severe as many analysts anticipate because the vast majority of home owners affected made small or no downpayments on their houses and will walk away without much of a loss. “The big financial institutions will absorb these losses, but they have the capital to do it,” he said. Moran forecast that housing starts would bottom out in the third quarter of 2008 at a rate of 1.25 million units. On the inflation front, Moran believes the outlook “looks pretty good” and that the nation’s central bank has sufficient leeway to cut rates again, “but not dramatically. The Fed won’t adjust monetary policy to rescue the housing market. It will take a macroeconomic outlook.” Predicting that consumer spending will hold up as job and income growth remain positive, all of the panelists pegged the odds of a recession within the next 12 months at anywhere between 30% and 40%. “The real driving force in personal spending is net worth in the consumer sector, not home equity,” said Moran. “Consumers won’t back away because household balance sheets are in good shape.” Photos by Morris Semiatin Want to Know the Housing Forecast for the Top 100 Metros? Find out in HousingEconomic.com’s 2008-2009 Metro Forecast (free preview). Get the metro forecast with in-depth analysis, overviews and downloadable Excel tables. To learn more, visit www.HousingEconomics.com. Want to Know Your State Starts Forecast for 2008 to 2009? Find out in HousingEconomics.com’s State Starts Forecast (sample). The starts forecast includes analysis and downloadable Excel tables of total, single-family and multifamily housing starts by regions and states. To learn more visit www.HousingEconomics.com. Housing Slump May Rattle Some Local EconomiesFocusing on the regional and metropolitan outlooks, Moody’s Economy.com Chief Economist Mark Zandi and NAHB Director of Forecasting Bernard Markstein offered NAHB's Fall Construction Forecast Conference similar views on how the housing market slowdown is shaking out across the country. Neither economist predicted that housing’s considerable drag on growth will actually pull the national economy into recession. However, states that experienced the most significant run-ups in home sales, prices and production during the recent boom period will definitely be feeling a major pinch — particularly in terms of home sales and prices, mortgage delinquencies and job losses within their housing sectors, they said. Some of these trouble spots, according to Zandi, will in fact experience near-recession conditions tied to the housing slowdown. Zandi pointed to Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada and the broader Boston and Washington, D.C. metros as those that will be most affected by the negative economic fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis. Also affected will be areas along the New Jersey coast, the Carolinas and parts of the industrial Midwest. Regional economies in these areas, he predicted, will encounter more severe declines in construction and housing prices along with weaker consumer spending and significant job losses in housing-related businesses than other markets across the country. Hottest Boom Areas to Bottom Out in Late 2008 Places that are experiencing the most significant weakening of economic activity at present include Phoenix, parts of central and southern California, Las Vegas and Reno, Nev., as well as parts of Florida’s east and west coasts, said Zandi. He expects housing activity in these areas to bottom out in late 2008 “at best.” In all, Zandi expects 2008 to be “an extremely difficult year” across the nation’s largest housing markets, with California, Arizona and Florida feeling the the full brunt of the housing downturn with peak-to-trough declines of 15% or more in local house prices. He also forecast that about three quarters of all U.S. home owners will experience declining home prices before the downturn’s end.
Comparing anticipated starts activity to the more normal benchmark of levels in 2002-2003, he said, shows a return to market equilibrium in 2008-2009. Biggest House-Price Declines Will Be Localized Markstein agreed that the biggest house-price declines will be relatively localized in markets in California, Florida, Nevada, the upper Northeast and the Midwest, but he also noted that in quite a few housing markets, prices are still rising. Whether this is good news or bad, Markstein said, it’s a far different story than what has been depicted in the media headlines. In fact, with just a few notable exceptions, most of the country’s metropolitan statistical areas have recorded little or no decline in house prices between their recent peaks and the second quarter of 2007, he said. The bottom line is that, while rapid price gains are a thing of the past, a lot of home owners are “still in good shape” with regard to their home values, he said. Photos by Morris Semiatin Want to Know the Housing Forecast for the Top 100 Metros? Find out in HousingEconomic.com’s 2008-2009 Metro Forecast (free preview). Get the metro forecast with in-depth analysis, overviews and downloadable Excel tables. To learn more, visit www.HousingEconomics.com. Want to Know Your State Starts Forecast for 2008 to 2009? Find out in HousingEconomics.com’s State Starts Forecast (sample). The starts forecast includes analysis and downloadable Excel tables of total, single-family and multifamily housing starts by regions and states. To learn more visit www.HousingEconomics.com. Pella Builds, Strengthens During Housing DownturnMel Haught, president and chief executive of Pella Corp., says the national housing downturn is unlike any that the Iowa-based window and door maker has experienced in 30 years. “It’s an overheated housing market that’s trying to adjust,” he says, and wasn’t triggered by high interest rates or unemployment. Looking at the long-term prospects for housing, Haught says there’s no question that the market will come back and his company has “continued to strike a balance between managing the current circumstance and investing in the future.” Pella has worked hard over the past 14 years, he says, to diversity so that a significant amount of its business is in remodeling and replacement, and it recently acquired EFCO, a Missouri-based maker of commercial windows. On prospects for job cuts, following the announcement of about 120 layoffs in February, Haught says: “We’re really well-positioned right now. In most cases, there’s some amount of turnover in our business, so we’re just letting that take place and being thoughtful and careful about replacing people. You have to get your business balanced with current circumstances. We don’t expect to reduce our workforce. We have a strong culture, a strong history of continuous improvement — sometimes referred to as lean. Sometimes when business slows a little, we increase our activity level on continuous improvement. It serves to make us more productive, and hopefully, in the long-term more efficient and more effective.” (www.desmoinesregister.com)
Industries Tied to Housing Market Slow, Let Workers GoHousing woes in California’s Central Valley have triggered an employment collapse in some industries closely tied to the market. Mortgage companies and title insurance firms are closing branch offices and shedding employees by the dozens. Some real estate agents have walked away from the business. Others are hoping to weather the downturn and emerge as savvier professionals. Construction firms are scrambling to find commercial or industrial work to offset the slowdown in residential building. General laborers who used to spend their days nailing together houses are shifting to other fields, some returning to the farms where they worked before construction offered a better-paying alternative. Since the start of the year, more than 40,000 workers nationwide have lost their jobs at mortgage lending institutions, according to data compiled by global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. Construction companies have announced nearly 20,000 job cuts this year, while the National Association of Realtors® expects its membership rolls to decline for the first time in a decade. Title companies were dealt a serious blow when the market turned, said Terry Harwell, division president of Alliance Title Co. in Stanislaus County. Transactions at the firm have plummeted 40% a year for the past two years, forcing the company to reduce its staff of 165 by 65% and shut three of its 10 branch offices. Its remaining employees have taken a 10% pay cut. (www.modbee.com)
A Cautious Path for Builders (Forced to Adjust Pace and Pricing in New Home Construction)The downturn in residential real estate has prompted builders of conventional subdivisions in Massachusetts to cut prices and offer financial incentives to entice increasingly selective buyers. The developers of the Zain Ridge condo development in Milford recently offered free Toyota Camrys to purchasers. Builders are also cutting back on starting new construction, with new home permits in the state down 25% from last year so far and possibly headed for a 28-year low, according to the Center for Urban and Regional Planning at Northeastern University. Some builders have adapted to the new realities by focusing on the upper end of the market, which is less affected by the subprime mortgage meltdown and where many buyers don’t have to sell a home before they can buy another. “If you have a very special location and a high-end project, you can achieve extraordinary sales results even in a down market,” said Hingham developer Tom Hastings. His firm, the Hasting Companies, has built a range of projects over the years, including manufactured home parks and conventional subdivisions. Its main housing development now is a luxury project on the Back River in Hingham with 45 homes ranging in price from $825,000 to $1.4 million. While the market slump has prompted nearly all of the state’s builders to slow the pace of construction, and they are especially cautious about speculative projects, residential real estate in Massachusetts does not appear as troubled as it is in other parts of the country. Restrictive zoning, scarce buildable land and conservative lending practices have prevented a huge oversupply of new homes. “We haven’t built enough to keep up with demand,” said Judy Jenkins, who is senior vice president of the Home Builders Association of Massachusetts. “We don’t have the big empty subdivisions we’re seeing in other parts of the country.” (www.boston.com)
As Housing in Florida Plummets, the Top Tier of the Market Just DipsDespite a record number of foreclosures and a raft of public auctions of unwanted houses, the upper tier of the real estate market in Florida remains relatively immune to the spreading disaster. Houses and condominiums with price tags of $1 million or more are changing hands robustly in some of the most exclusive areas, though at a pace less brisk than a year ago. The glistening waterfront glass towers on Miami Beach, the sprawling estates set in manicured gardens in Palm Beach and the clustered mansions in Naples are attracting buyers, both domestic and foreign. “The very, very high end of markets in communities such as the Bay Area, Los Angeles, Manhattan and Miami and to a lesser degree Chicago, Seattle and Washington that have global appeal have held up much better than the rest of the housing market,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “A recession would certainly not help the high end, but it would not undermine it. And much of their buying is done with cash and not affected by the global financial turmoil and its impact on the availability of mortgages.” (www.nytimes.com)
Area Home Owners on Solid Ground in Housing MarketA recent study of housing prices in the country’s 50 largest metropolitan areas shows, on average, a 32.9% chance that home prices will decline in the next two years. But in the Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas market, the chance of a decline is 8.9%, putting the area next to the bottom among the 50 areas, according to PMI Mortgage Insurance, the U.S. subsidiary of PMI Group. The chance of a decline in the Dallas-Plano-Irving area is 9.5%, also among the country’s lowest. The hardest-hit areas are likely to be Nevada, California, Arizona and Florida, where the chances of home prices falling in the next two years are better than 50%, PMI found. In Texas, home prices have been gaining about 4% annually, and could stay that way for the foreseeable future, experts say. In North Texas in September, the median selling price of homes rose 3% to $147,500 from a year earlier, although selling a home is taking longer. Homes now stay on the market for an average of 74 days before closing. “We did not have the bubble,” said Jim Gaines, a real estate economist at Texas A&M University’s Real Estate Center. “We didn’t have the inflated prices. Those high prices made no sense. People just couldn’t afford to keep paying those kinds of prices. It’s all coming home to roost now.” In recent weeks, the country’s largest home builders have announced plans to construct far fewer homes. Fort Worth-based D.R. Horton said it has already greatly improved its cash flow because of building reductions. “I really don’t see our inventories being that out of whack,” said Ted Wilson, a partner with Dallas-based Residential Strategies, a market research firm. “With the lack of new starts, we’re hopeful the housing inventory gets mopped up. If anything, what we’ve seen in new home prices is that they’re edging higher.” (www.star-telegram.com)
Lenders Curb Mortgages in Weaker AreasMortgage lenders are cutting the maximum amount some borrowers can finance in counties or states where home prices are declining, and they are also taking a tougher look at appraisals. Among the areas being hit by the tougher standards are California, Florida and Michigan. The sharper focus on soft housing markets comes after mortgage lenders have tightened their standards for all borrowers amid a slowing housing market, a widespread credit crunch and rising delinquencies. New national data from Equifax Inc. and Moody’s Economy.com show that the mortgage delinquency rate jumped to 3.3% in the third quarter from 2.3% a year earlier. With house prices falling, lenders are looking to control their risk, says Doug Duncan, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association. But “there’s a little bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he adds. “If you tighten standards, fewer people can qualify [for a mortgage]. Effective demand is going to be lower, resulting in lower house prices." Thornburg Mortgage Inc. in Santa Fe, N.M., which specializes in larger loans, has begun looking at median home prices in specific markets when it assesses a particular loan. “If we’re making a $2 million loan in Manhattan, we’re a lot more comfortable with it than a $2 million loan in Dearborn, Mich.,” where prices tend to be much lower, says Thornburg President Larry Goldstone. (http://online.wsj.com)
House Bill to Tighten Mortgage Regulations IntroducedHouse Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.), along with Reps. Brad Miller (D-N.C.) and Mel Watt (D-N.C.), on Oct. 22 introduced legislation to tighten mortgage regulations in the wake of the turmoil in the subprime mortgage market. Frank said the new legislation would "diminish predatory lending while continuing to support a vigorous mortgage market." H.R. 3915, the Mortgage Reform and Anti-Predatory Lending Act of 2007, would:
"Getting this balance right is particularly critical now, as many borrowers facing rate adjustments may need to refinance into more affordable loans," Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner said in written testimony. He added that Congress should not approve any bill that would have a "detrimental impact on the ability of lenders to securitize loans." Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan said that he "supports some of the broader standards" of the bill, but cautioned that "application of some of the new and extensive mortgage standards to banks that do not provide subprime mortgages raises significant issues of regulatory burden and fairness." NAHB continues to monitor the situation and is evaluating individual provisions in the bill to determine their impact on the housing market. NAHB policy is to support and encourage continued mortgage market innovation to improve housing affordability and expand homeownership opportunities as long as these loans are prudently underwritten to ensure that the form of financing is appropriate for the borrower and market and that consumers are fully aware of the features and risks of the loan. For more information, e-mail Scott Meyer at NAHB, or call him at 800-368-5242 x8144. ‘Mother of All Tax Bills’ Targets Carried InterestAfter more than six months of anticipation, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) last week released what he calls the “mother of all tax bills” — H.R. 3970, the Tax Reduction and Reform Act of 2007. The legislation is wide-ranging and includes changes to both the individual and corporate tax systems. The primary focus of the bill is the permanent repeal of the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) — paid for by replacing the AMT with a 4% surtax on adjusted gross income of more than $150,000 for individuals and more than $200,000 for married couples. The surcharge would rise to 4.6% for income over $250,000 for individuals and over $500,000 for married couples. The bill would also lower the overall corporate tax rate from 35% to 30.5% and extend the deduction for private mortgage insurance and a number of expiring tax incentives of importance to real estate. NAHB staff members are analyzing the proposal to determine how it would impact housing and the home building industry. While there is little expectation that this bill will pass this year, it serves as a good indicator of how Rangel would like to proceed with tax reform. NAHB will be communicating industry concerns to both Rangel and the full House of Representatives. Short-Term AMT Relief Could Be Extended for a Year H.R. 3970 would also extend short-term AMT relief for another year, which would prevent an additional 20 million people from being subjected to the tax. This piece is likely to be spun off from the larger bill, along with the extension of a number of expiring tax provisions, so that it can move quickly through the Ways and Means Committee and, ultimately, the full House. A committee markup of the bill could take place next week. Of great concern to NAHB is that the cost of this smaller bill would be offset through a change in the taxation of carried interest. This provision mirrors legislation introduced by Rep. Sander Levin (D-Mich.) earlier this year (H.R. 2834) that would tax a carried interest at ordinary income tax rates as high as 35% instead of the current 15% capital gains rate. While this proposal has been promoted as a method for ensuring that highly paid hedge fund and private equity fund managers pay their appropriate level of tax, it would disproportionately affect real estate, especially small developers. Short-Term AMT Relief in the Senate Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) is also committed to passing short-term AMT relief before the end of the year, although he has expressed no interest in larger AMT repeal legislation at this time or in passing stand-alone carried interest legislation along the lines of Rep. Levin’s bill. Further, there have been some discussions over waiving congressional pay-as-you-go requirements for this legislation and whether the Senate will require any offset for an extension of short-term AMT relief. The House leadership to date has not supported this approach and the situation is highly fluid. NAHB is weighing in with concerns and monitoring the activities on both tax bills closely. For more information, e-mail Greg Brown at NAHB, or call him at 800-368-5242 x8421. ‘It’s the End of Subprime as We Know It'
That means no more subprime purchase loans in their current configuration — a system that he said was “built to fail” ― and a return to a more “prudently tight” mortgage lending environment and more balanced homeownership rate by age cohort. Too many younger households were able to buy into the housing market during the booms years, Lawler said, which helped fuel the boom and feed the bust. Lawler said that he had been raising the housing market alarm during appearances at earlier construction forecast conferences and elsewhere since at least 2005 and showed a slide documenting his warnings. “The investor share of the purchase market has increased dramatically,” he told conference attendees in 2005. “You had to be on something not to see bubbles in some areas,” he said a year later. The warning signs were always there, he told last week’s attendees. But not too many people pointed them out until the housing downturn took hold. “I’m now in the mainstream,” he said, waving his stick emphatically. Among the unheeded warnings he focused on were dramatic increases in home prices in the super-heated markets across the country, in investors/speculators in those same markets and in the rise of vacant homes for sale. People at the time claimed these increases were caused by population growth, Lawler said. “No, it wasn’t,” he said, while raising his stick to point to a chart showing a 45% or more increase in single-family home prices in Phoenix and Las Vegas in less than two years. But Lawler said his biggest beef was with how lending got out of control in the subprime and Alt-A markets. Calling the subprime market in 2006 “the worst ever,” he said delinquency rates were two times the historical norm — for good reason. Subprime mortgages, he said, were risky products with risky underwriting and limited flexibility. Too many subprime mortgages required little or nothing down, too few required income verification and two-thirds of the mortgages provided no escrow for taxes and insurance. As the housing market overheated, the ARM share of subprime loans moved from less than 75% in 2001 to more than 90% in 2005 and 2006. Subprime loans requiring full documentation during the same time period decreased from just over 70% to less than half by 2006. “Pathetic,” he said, “absolutely pathetic.” He noted that Alt-A loan purchases followed similar patterns from 2001 to 2006. “They were performing okay when house prices were going up,” Lawler said. “But they were built to fail.” Lawler would not predict how far real home prices or home sales would fall. In economics, unprecedented rises are always followed by “unprecedented drops,” he said. Near the close of his presentation, Lawler also hawked three imaginary CD recordings of what he called the “Greatest Hits of Subprime” ― not available in stores:
Want to Know the Housing Forecast for the Top 100 Metros?
Find out in HousingEconomic.com’s 2008-2009 Metro Forecast (free preview). Get the metro forecast with in-depth analysis, overviews and downloadable Excel tables. To learn more, visit www.HousingEconomics.com.
Want to Know Your State Starts Forecast for 2008 to 2009? Find out in HousingEconomics.com’s State Starts Forecast (sample). The starts forecast includes analysis and downloadable Excel tables of total, single-family and multifamily housing starts by regions and states. To learn more visit www.HousingEconomics.com. Condos Rocky, But Future Looks Brighter for Rentals
NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders said the near-term outlook for multifamily housing is tempered by rising vacancy levels for rental units and sharply increased numbers of vacant for-sale condo units ― which rose beyond 350,000 units nationwide earlier this year before beginning to drop in the second quarter. Multifamily Construction on the Decline Seiders said that multifamily starts have been falling since early last year and the number of multifamily units under construction has stabilized and will be declining soon. However, the inventory of completed condos is continuing to climb. Because of the long construction timeline for condominium projects, many of those begun last year are just now coming into the market, exacerbating supply problems. The rapid drop in condo sales, Seiders said, will contribute to supply-demand imbalances and put downward pressure on prices in the coming year. The best news for the multifamily sector ― particularly regarding rentals — is in the demographics, said Mark Obrinsky, chief economist for the National Multi Housing Council.
Obrinsky said those in the “echo boom” ― the children of the baby boomers — are positioned to look for apartments. He also noted that 60% of recent immigrants in the 25-to-44 age range rent apartments and that the last two decades brought the largest influx of immigrants to the U.S. since World War II. Drop in Real Rents Will Benefit Cash-Strapped Starter Households Obrinsky also pointed out that real rents dropped precipitously in 2002 and have seen little increase since then. While not great news for apartment owners, this has made rentals a more attractive option than purchasing for many cash-strapped starter households. Obrinsky said that 250,000 to 280,000 new units will be needed annually to meet the demand from the 2 million additional apartment renters coming through the pipeline between now and 2015 and to replace units lost from the rental stock. This demand projection does not take into account condominium buyers, and Obrinsky said that the current trend of 300,000 completed multifamily units per year should ensure that the current oversupply of condos is absorbed over time. Photos by Morris Semiatin Want to Know the Housing Forecast for the Top 100 Metros? Find out in HousingEconomic.com’s 2008-2009 Metro Forecast (free preview). Get the metro forecast with in-depth analysis, overviews and downloadable Excel tables. To learn more, visit www.HousingEconomics.com. Want to Know Your State Starts Forecast for 2008 to 2009? Find out in HousingEconomics.com’s State Starts Forecast (sample). The starts forecast includes analysis and downloadable Excel tables of total, single-family and multifamily housing starts by regions and states. To learn more visit www.HousingEconomics.com. September Sales Show Progress on Reducing New-Home InventorySales of new single-family homes rose 4.8% in September, recovering a portion of the substantial ground they lost in the previous month, according to data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Oct. 25. Sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 units following major downward revisions to figures for the previous three months. “While tough conditions remain in the nation’s housing markets, home builders are taking decisive action to reduce inventories through special sales incentives and sweetened deals,” said NAHB President Brian Catalde. “We’re pulling out all the stops to entice potential buyers back into the market, and today’s report suggests that those efforts are bearing some fruit.” “Given the substantial downward revisions to home sales numbers for June, July and August, it must be said that this is still a fundamentally weak report,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. “Moreover, the large sales gains reported in the West region are highly suspicious, given the results of our own builder surveys and large downward movements in existing-home sales in that region.” “On the positive side, builders do seem to be making progress on reducing the substantial overhang of unsold units on the market, according to the latest figures,” Seiders said. The inventory of new homes for sale edged down for a sixth consecutive month in September to 523,000 units as builders cut back on the pace of housing starts and aggressively stepped up sales incentives. The inventory overhang amounts to an 8.3-month supply at the current sales pace, still high on a historical basis but down from a nine-month supply in August. Regional numbers for new-home sales, which can display significant month-to-month volatility, showed a 37.7% gain in the West, a marginal 0.5% gain in the South and declines of 6.6% and 19.5% in the Northeast and Midwest, respectively. Seiders noted that there’s still downward momentum in the single-family housing market, and the reported increase in new-home sales for September should not deter the Federal Reserve from enacting another interest rate cut at the Oct. 30-31 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Want to Know the Housing Forecast for the Top 100 Metros? Find out in HousingEconomic.com’s 2008 to 2009 Metro Forecast (free preview). Get the metro forecast with in-depth analysis, overviews and downloadable Excel tables. To learn more, visit www.HousingEconomics.com. Free NAHB Kit Gives Builders Back-to-Basics Tips in Navigate the Slowdown What was once expected to be a relatively mild housing slump following three years of record new home construction and sales has given way to a significant downturn. To help members navigate the uncharted waters of this slowdown, NAHB has compiled a comprehensive “Back to Basics” online toolkit — the best of the basics, the tried and true and the truly new. To access the toolkit, click here. To access the “Back to Basics” toolkit, you must be an NAHB member and have a login to www.nahb.org. To create a login, go to www.nahb.org/login or click on the log-in button on the main menu bar. For assistance, call the NAHB Member Service Center at 800-368-5242. NAHB Opposes OFHEO Proposal to Lower Conforming Loan LimitsThe Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) last week published a notice in the Federal Register that would allow it to establish new guidelines that could result in future declines in the conforming loan limit. The notice requests comments on changes to proposed guidance that OFHEO issued in June, which NAHB strongly opposed because it would have adverse consequences for the nation’s home buyers. NAHB also questioned OFHEO’s statutory authority for this guidance and urged OFHEO to issue the proposed changes for comment in the Federal Register, rather than just posting the announcement on the agency’s Web site. Although OFHEO has acceded to NAHB’s request to obtain broad public input on the proposed changes through a Federal Register notice and has announced that it will not lower the current conforming loan limit of $417,000 in 2008, NAHB continues to oppose the proposed procedures because they could result in future declines in the conforming loan limit. Conforming loan limit calculations establish the maximum size limit for loans that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are allowed to purchase and they are also used to set limits for FHA and VA loans. These limits are determined annually based on year-over-year changes to the existing level of home prices based on data from the Federal Housing Finance Board’s Monthly Interest Rate Survey. The average home purchase price on which the calculation is based declined by 0.16% last year. Under the OFHEO proposal, if the price continues to decline this year and in 2008, and the cumulative decline is more than 3%, then the limit for 2009 would be adjusted downward by that amount. Stating that “the proposal does not appear to be authorized under current law, which only permits increases in the loan limit,” NAHB, along with the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors®, sent a joint letter to the leadership of the Senate Banking Committee and House Financial Services Committee in July urging that the earlier guidance be withdrawn. The law specifies that the annual adjustment to the limit each November for the following calendar year is made by "adding" to the amount, not subtracting from it. OFHEO is now attempting to get around this requirement by defining a decline as a “negative increase.” In addition, the three groups noted that the proposed change would be bad public policy. "As you are aware, the housing sector is currently undergoing a correction, and there is concern about the availability of funds for the refinancing of loans and for new loans," the letter said. "Reductions in the conforming loan limit could impair the ability of some borrowers to refinance out of subprime mortgages, which is of particular concern for families with problematic mortgages, as well as prevent some first-time home buyers from obtaining lower-cost financing on conforming, FHA or VA loans." NAHB policy specifically calls for “OFHEO to withdraw proposed guidance that would permit a decline in the conforming loan limit.” In comments on the June proposal, NAHB maintained that the conforming loan limit can only be increased, but not decreased, under current statutory authority. In addition, the association noted that the possibility of a reduction in the conforming loan limit would create market uncertainty and significant negative repercussions for consumers, builders and lenders at a time when the housing market is struggling to regain its footing. Housing consumers would be impacted by higher financing costs for non-conforming loans, while builders and lenders would face operational disruptions. Further, NAHB faulted OFHEO for not following the Administrative Procedures Act in issuing the proposal, including a full notice and comment in the Federal Register. NAHB also raised this concern in separate correspondence to the Office of Management and Budget. NAHB will once again submit comments opposing OFHEO’s proposed guidance, arguing that this it is not only bad public policy in the wake of the ongoing housing correction, but is not authorized under current law, which provides that the limit may only be adjusted based on increases in the statutory home price index. For more information, e-mail Michelle Hamecs at NAHB, or call her at 800-368-5242 x8425. Want to Know the Housing Forecast for the Top 100 Metros? Find out in HousingEconomic.com’s 2008 to 2009 Metro Forecast (free preview). Get the metro forecast with in-depth analysis, overviews and downloadable Excel tables. To learn more, visit www.HousingEconomics.com. Free NAHB Kit Gives Builders Back-to-Basics Tips in Navigate the Slowdown What was once expected to be a relatively mild housing slump following three years of record new home construction and sales has given way to a significant downturn. To help members navigate the uncharted waters of this slowdown, NAHB has compiled a comprehensive “Back to Basics” online toolkit — the best of the basics, the tried and true and the truly new. To access the toolkit, click here. To access the “Back to Basics” toolkit, you must be an NAHB member and have a login to www.nahb.org. To create a login, go to www.nahb.org/login or click on the log-in button on the main menu bar. For assistance, call the NAHB Member Service Center at 800-368-5242. Countrywide to Refinance or Modify Up to $16 Billion in LoansIn a move to help more than 80,000 financially strapped borrowers, Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation’s largest mortgage lender, announced last week that it will restructure or refinance up to $16 billion in adjustable-rate mortgages that have recently reset or will reset by the end of 2008. “Countrywide is committed to helping its customers sustain homeownership,” David Sambol, the company's president and chief operating officer, said in a press statement. “Countrywide believes that none of our subprime borrowers that have demonstrated the ability to make payments should lose their home to foreclosure solely as a result of a rate reset.” As part of its home preservation program, which is geared primarily to subprime borrowers, Countrywide specialists will contact borrowers who are current in their mortgage payments and approaching a rate reset to determine their financial circumstances and advise them about refinance and loan modification options. The mortgage lender’s new programs will help home owners who:
Want to Know the Housing Forecast for the Top 100 Metros? Find out in HousingEconomic.com’s 2008 to 2009 Metro Forecast (free preview). Get the metro forecast with in-depth analysis, overviews and downloadable Excel tables. To learn more, visit www.HousingEconomics.com. Free NAHB Kit Gives Builders Back-to-Basics Tips in Navigate the Slowdown What was once expected to be a relatively mild housing slump following three years of record new home construction and sales has given way to a significant downturn. To help members navigate the uncharted waters of this slowdown, NAHB has compiled a comprehensive “Back to Basics” online toolkit — the best of the basics, the tried and true and the truly new. To access the toolkit, click here. To access the “Back to Basics” toolkit, you must be an NAHB member and have a login to www.nahb.org. To create a login, go to www.nahb.org/login or click on the log-in button on the main menu bar. For assistance, call the NAHB Member Service Center at 800-368-5242. Fall Forecast Conference Draws Record Media AttendanceMore than 30 members of the national media, including reporters from USA Today, BBC World News, Down Jones and the Associated Press, covered NAHB’s Fall Construction Forecast Conference in Washington, D.C. last week. Many from across the country viewed the all-day event on NAHB’s simultaneous webcast. This was the largest media attendance for a construction forecast conference to date. After the conference, NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders and Bernard Markstein, NAHB’s director of forecasting, conducted several interviews with the media. In addition, PBS’s “Nightly Business Report” interviewed several builders and conference speakers on their views of where the housing market is heading. The conference also attracted interest from financial analysts from New York, Chicago and London. More than 1,000 NAHB members watched the webcast, as well, many of them at events hosted by their local home builders association. For more information, visit www.nahb.org/cfc.
Want to Know the Housing Forecast for the Top 100 Metros? Find out in HousingEconomic.com’s 2008-2009 Metro Forecast (free preview). Get the metro forecast with in-depth analysis, overviews and downloadable Excel tables. To learn more, visit www.HousingEconomics.com.
Want to Know Your State Starts Forecast for 2008 to 2009? Find out in HousingEconomics.com’s State Starts Forecast (sample). The starts forecast includes analysis and downloadable Excel tables of total, single-family and multifamily housing starts by regions and states. To learn more visit www.HousingEconomics.com. Useful Links to Monitor Economic and Housing TrendsThe following are links to useful information from government agencies and NAHB that will enable you to monitor the housing market. To access the latest information available, simply click the links.
Want to Know the Housing Forecast for the Top 100 Metros? Find out in HousingEconomic.com’s 2008 to 2009 Metro Forecast (free preview). Get the metro forecast with in-depth analysis, overviews and downloadable Excel tables. To learn more, visit www.HousingEconomics.com. Free NAHB Kit Gives Builders Back-to-Basics Tips in Navigate the Slowdown What was once expected to be a relatively mild housing slump following three years of record new home construction and sales has given way to a significant downturn. To help members navigate the uncharted waters of this slowdown, NAHB has compiled a comprehensive “Back to Basics” online toolkit — the best of the basics, the tried and true and the truly new. To access the toolkit, click here. To access the “Back to Basics” toolkit, you must be an NAHB member and have a login to www.nahb.org. To create a login, go to www.nahb.org/login or click on the log-in button on the main menu bar. For assistance, call the NAHB Member Service Center at 800-368-5242. Builders’ Tip: Lop Off the Corners to Fit Crown Molding
Even when the molding is nailed loosely, this can be a hassle, especially when working with a tight fit to begin with. As shown in the accompanying drawing, I’ve found a way to handle the molding without the hassle. Here’s how:
Tips & Techniques provided by Fine Homebuilding.
To request a reprint of this feature, e-mail Christina Glennon at Fine Homebuilding.
BuilderBooks.com Offers More Than 250 Books That Help You Build Your Business BuilderBooks.com is your source for training and education products for the building industry. The official bookstore for NAHB, BuilderBooks.com offers award-winning publications, software, brochures and more available in both English and Spanish. To view these publications online, click here, or call 800-223-2665.
What was once expected to be a relatively mild housing slump following three years of record new home construction and sales has given way to a significant downturn. To help members navigate the uncharted waters of this slowdown, NAHB has compiled a comprehensive “Back to Basics” online toolkit — the best of the basics, the tried and true and the truly new. To access the toolkit, click here. To access the “Back to Basics” toolkit, you must be an NAHB member and have a login to www.nahb.org. To create a login, go to www.nahb.org/login or click on the log-in button on the main menu bar. For assistance, call the NAHB Member Service Center at 800-368-5242. NAHB Relief Fund Poised to Help Southern CaliforniaNAHB’s Home Building Industry Disaster Relief Fund, a recognized 501(c)(3) charitable organization, is poised to help residents of Southern California affected by the wildfires that have swept across the area. By Friday, Oct. 26, the wildfires had reportedly displaced hundreds of thousands of residents, caused $1 billion in property damage and destroyed an estimated 1,635 homes. The NAHB fund was created following Hurricane Katrina to provide a pipeline for relief funds from the building industry that would be used to help rebuild communities struck by disaster. The relief fund directs contributions made to the fund to other recognized charities that are helping with shelter, healthcare and education. To contribute to the NAHB relief fund online, click here. Warning Against Unscrupulous Contractors NAHB is also working with the Building Industry Association of Southern California to produce public service announcements advising consumers about hiring contractors to repair their homes and property. Following natural disasters, unscrupulous contractors often try to take advantage of residents victimized by the tragedy. NAHB is dedicated to helping members and associations warn their communities about this danger and how to avoid it. For more information, e-mail Jessica Lynch at NAHB, or call her at 800-368-5242 x8401. Enter Pillars of Industry Awards Competition by Nov. 30
Entries are open for the 2008 Pillars of the Industry Awards competition honoring excellence in apartment and condominium design and development — including the best mixed-use community — as well as leadership in marketing and property management. Apartment owners and developers, property managers, architects, interior designers and others involved in the multifamily housing industry are invited to enter. The application deadline is Nov. 30. Entry notebooks are due Dec. 7. The Pillars of the Industry Awards program is the largest and most prestigious of its kind, and both housing professionals and the media look to the awards as a showcase of future trends and innovation. The awards recognize superior achievement in three areas: building, marketing and individual excellence, including “Multifamily Development Firm of the Year” and “Best Multifamily Community of the Year.”
For complete details, including eligibility requirements and application forms, go to www.nahb.org/pillarsawards, e-mail multifamily@nahb.com, or call 800-368-5242 x8215. To see a list of last year's winners, available on the NAHB Web site, click here. Get Informed, Make Connections at Pillars Conference Attend the 2008 Multifamily Pillars of the Industry Conference & Awards Gala, April 1-3, and find out what’s next in the rapidly changing multifamily market from top economists and multifamily market experts. Network with the top professionals in the field and find out how they’re navigating the current market. Walk away with new contacts and fresh perspectives. For more information, visit www.nahb.org/pillarsconference. NAHB Remodelers: 25 Years of MilestonesIt all started in 1952 when the then Federal Housing Agency (now HUD) created the Title 1 Home Improvement Loan program to encourage the maintenance and improvement of the existing housing stock. NAHB Remodelers, under several names, has been serving as an information resource on professional remodeling to consumers and has advocated for policy and economic concerns on behalf of the council’s members and the industry ever since. The milestones in the accompanying chart depict some of the landmark events and extraordinary people who have contributed so much to the NAHB Remodelers’ history.
Register for Free Sales and Marketing Audio ConferenceIndustry veterans who have been through market shifts in their careers will discuss what sales and marketing changes should be made in order to thrive in today’s market during an upcoming audio conference that is free to NAHB members. The hour-long teleconference, “Ramp Up Your Sales & Marketing in a Changing Market,” will begin at 2 p.m. Wednesday, Dec. 12. A panel of sales and marketing experts will discuss successful techniques that are working for them. The teleconference will include a 40-minute presentation by the panel, followed by a 20-minute question-and-answer session. Members are encouraged to e-mail questions to the panel in advance to Michael Copp at NAHB. Teleconference topics include the following:
To Register Free online registration is available by clicking here. For more information, read the teleconference flyer by clicking here. HBAs and local sales and marketing councils are encouraged to host the audio conference call at their HBA. For more information, e-mail Michael Copp at NAHB, or call him at 800-368-5242 x8340. The conference is co-hosted by the National Sales and Marketing Council and Biztools™, NAHB's business management comprehensive resource on the NAHB Web site. Bill Webb, MIRM, shows you how in “Sweet Success in New Home Sales,” available through BuilderBooks.com. This book provides powerful techniques for selling more homes and making more money in leaner times. "Sweet Success in New Home Sales" lays out the proven approaches for crafting and delivering sales excellence. To view or purchase this publication online, click here, or call 800-223-2665.
Tickets Now Available for The Nationals 2008 Gala at IBSTickets are available for The Nationals 2008 gala, the housing industry’s largest and most prestigious competition honoring new-home sales and marketing professionals and communities. Hosted by the National Sales and Marketing Council (NSMC), the gala will be held at the Rosen Shingle Creek Resort in Orlando on Feb. 13 during the 2008 International Builders’ Show. "The Nationals celebrates innovation, creativity and drive," said Ross Robbins, MIRM, CMP, a Colorado-based consultant and chairman of The Nationals 2008. "NAHB's dedication to honoring the achievements of new home sales and marketing professionals has created a legacy of excellence that we can be proud of.” Begun in 1982 as the Institute of Residential Marketing (MIRM) Awards, this year The Nationals will honor excellence in 57 categories of residential design, marketing, interior merchandising, advertising, Web site design and individual and team sales achievement. In addition, The Nationals honor the top local sales and marketing councils across the country. More than 1,300 entries are being considered for this year’s competition. Gold Award winners in each category will be announced at the gala, which is expected to have more than 1,000 attendees. To Purchase Tickets Individual tickets are $175 each for NSMC members and $195 for non-members. Tables of 10 also are available for $1,750 and $1,950, respectively. Individual and group tickets may be purchased online by clicking here; e-mailing Lisa Parrish or calling her at 800-658-2751; or by visiting The Nationals Web site at www.thenationals.com. Earning the Certified New Home Sales Professional (CSP) designation can give you the edge you need in today’s market. Ask current CSPs how the designation has benefited their careers on the "Ask a CSP" page. These graduates have volunteered to answer questions, provide guidance and help navigate the CSP program. For more information about NAHB designations, visit www.nahb.org/designations. Education Calendar
Learn More About Upcoming Conferences and Designations Interested in attending a University of Housing conference or learning more about NAHB designation programs? Visit www.nahb.org/notifyme, and sign up to receive more information.
Free NAHB Kit Gives Builders Back-to-Basics Tips in Navigate the Slowdown What was once expected to be a relatively mild housing slump following three years of record new home construction and sales has given way to a significant downturn. To help members navigate the uncharted waters of this slowdown, NAHB has compiled a comprehensive “Back to Basics” online toolkit — the best of the basics, the tried and true and the truly new. To access the toolkit, click here. To access the “Back to Basics” toolkit, you must be an NAHB member and have a login to www.nahb.org. To create a login, go to www.nahb.org/login or click on the log-in button on the main menu bar. For assistance, call the NAHB Member Service Center at 800-368-5242. Pilot Testing Begun for National Green Building Program
Home builders associations and individual builders from around the country last week began pilot programs that will allow NAHB’s green building certification tool to be tested to determine the certification and verification protocol that makes the most sense for builders enrolled in the program. NAHB will officially launch the NAHB National Green Building Program on Feb. 14 during the 2008 International Builders’ Show in Orlando. The program is based upon NAHB’s Model Green Home Building Guidelines, which debuted in 2005 and helped systematize the green design and construction process and assist builders in incorporating more green building features into homes. “Fortunately, we don’t have to test the guidelines themselves ― we already know they work very well,” said Ray Tonjes, NAHB Green Building Subcommittee chairman. “The pilots are intended to test the administration of the program and the online certification tool.” “It’s an excellent tool that I think builders and verifiers will find easy to use,” Tonjes continued, “but we need some validation in the field.” The pilot programs began Oct. 15 and are expected to be completed by the end of the year. NAHB will use the feedback from the pilot programs to ensure that the new national program is easy to understand, eases administrative burdens for local associations, is simple to navigate and integrates well into existing green building programs. Pilot program volunteers will test the verification process using at least two different types of verification ― for example, either independent consultants or utility representatives ― and different certification tools. The volunteers will also make suggestions for improving the process. In addition, volunteers will be testing the newly designed HBA operations manual for green building programs during the pilot period. The NAHB Research Center is administering the pilot programs and will assist local associations and builders as they work through the process, conducting field visits in some instances. The Research Center recruited builders and HBAs from different regions and distinct climate areas from across the country as well as participants in a variety of existing regional green building programs to ensure that the NAHB program is widely adaptible. The pilot program volunteers include: HBAs Following an Existing Guidelines-Based Program These associations will assess the NAHB program:
These associations will compare their current programs with NAHB’s national program scoring tool and verification process:
These associations will use the draft certification and verification tools to see how they work in programs that are just being launched:
These builders will test and assess the NAHB program:
The volunteer participants also will be the first to be considered for application status once the National Green Building Program’s evaluation tool and process are finalized, although all existing green building programs can apply next year as well. Similarly, successful pilot verifiers will be in a position to be approved as a part of the February 2008 launch. For more information, e-mail Calli Schmidt at NAHB, or call her at 800-368-5242 x8132. Take the Lead on Green Building Register now for The 2008 National Green Building Conference, held May 11-13 in New Orleans. Get contacts, tools and ideas that are good for both the environment and your bottom line. The National Green Building Conference is the only national conference targeted to green building for the mainstream residential building industry. Network with designers and suppliers, attend exceptional education sessions and develop the skills you need for profitable green building. For information and to register, visit www.nahb.org/greenbuildingconference, call 800-368-5242 x8338, or e-mail registrar@nahb.com. ‘Building Greener Neighborhoods’ Available at BuilderBooks.com “Building Greener Neighborhoods,” available through Digital Delivery at BuilderBooks.com, shows those involved in building new communities the advantages and rewards of saving, planting and transplanting more trees in their developments. The examples are drawn from decades of experience of land developers, home builders and urban foresters. To download this publication in a PDF format, click here, or call 800-223-2665. Green Building Award Applications Now Being AcceptedEntries are now being accepted for the 2008 NAHB National Green Building Awards. The awards recognize individuals, companies and organizations for excellence in residential green design and construction practices and for green building program and advocacy efforts. Honoring achievements in green building, the NAHB National Green Building Awards will be presented at a gala dinner during the NAHB National Green Building Conference, which will take place in New Orleans on May 11-13. Award categories include:
The NAHB National Green Building Conference is celebrating its 10th anniversary in 2008. Attendance at the annual event is expected to be nearly double the previous 1,100 record, which was set this year in St. Louis. Exhibit booths are selling briskly, according to account representative Chris Hood. Potential exhibitors can e-mail Hood at NAHB, or call him at 800-368-5242 x8684. For more information about the awards program, e-mail Emily English at NAHB, or call her at 800-368-5242 x8366; or vist www.nahb.org/GreenBuildingAwards.
Take the Mystery Out of Green Building Register now for The 2008 National Green Building Conference, held May 11-13 in New Orleans. Get contacts, tools and ideas that are good for both the environment and your bottom line. The National Green Building Conference is the only national conference targeted to green building for the mainstream residential building industry. Network with designers and suppliers, attend exceptional education sessions and develop the skills you need for profitable green building. For information and to register, visit www.nahb.org/greenbuildingconference, call 800-368-5242 x8338, or e-mail registrar@nahb.com.
‘Profit from Green Building’ Available at BuilderBooks.com “Profit from Building Green — Award-Winning Tips to Build Energy Efficient Homes,” available through BuilderBooks.com, showcases what energy conscious award-winning builders are doing, provides innovative energy-efficient features and covers successful techniques for building this niche market. To view or purchase this publication online, click here, or call 800-223-2665. New Deck Design Guide Promotes Better-Built Decks
The guide, “DCA6: Prescriptive Residential Deck Design Guide,” was developed in conjunction with the International Code Council (ICC) and Fairfax County, Va. Task force participants included NAHB, APA–The Engineered Wood Association, Simpson Strong-Tie, Southern Forest Product Association and the WTCA representing the structural building components industry. NAHB’s Construction Codes & Standards staff worked to make the guide as builder-friendly as possible. Part of the AWC’s Design for Code Acceptance series, the guide provides details, span tables, guardrail requirements and other provisions for constructing a residential deck in accordance with the International Residential Code. The guide also contains recommended good practices for deck construction that are not specifically code requirements. AWC members requested the development of the guide, noting the lack of prescriptive code requirements in the IRC and of consistent, up-to-date guidance and details from other industry sources. The guide incorporates the attachment table for deck ledgers developed by Frank Woeste at Virginia Tech University. Building officials approved the table for inclusion in the “2007 Supplement to the International Residential Code.” The table specifies bolt or lag screw spacing for attaching deck ledgers either to a rim board or to a concrete or CMU wall. The table covers both solid sawn and engineered wood ledgers and rim boards. ICC plans to market the guide to building officials as a deemed-to-comply option for constructing a residential deck. The intent is for building departments to offer the guide to builders and home owners in place of requiring a formal plan submission in order to obtain a deck permit. The guide is limited to single-story decks and does not address wind and seismic loads, snow loads or unique loads such as hot tubs. Decks constructed per the guide may not be attached to cantilevered house framing or masonry veneers. Deck designs and loads falling outside the scope of the guide will require a plan submission. The guide does not supersede existing deck details offered by local jurisdictions, nor does it prohibit a builder from separately designing a deck using the IRC and applicable standards, or retaining a registered design professional. Deck Design Guide Available Free From AWC The “Prescriptive Residential Deck Design Guide” is available as a free download from the AWC Web site by clicking here. For more information, e-mail Gary Ehrlich at NAHB, or call him at 800-368-5242 x8545. Training Puts Offenders on the Path to Jobs, Congress Told
The hearing by the House Subcommittee on Federal Workforce, Postal Service and the District of Columbia was convened to examine the treatment of D.C. inmates at the Rivers Correctional Institution in Winton, N.C. and to gather information on best practice training models that could be adopted there and at other facilities. In response to a question by Rep. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.) on factors that make training effective, Torbett noted that HBI’s training programs have benefited from the strong support they have received from home builders. “The involvement of the industry has proven essential to the success of our programs,” he said. Torbett cited a multitude of job opportunities in residential construction and a continued need for skilled labor, but he noted that the availability of training programs is fairly limited, despite the success of specialized training programs such as HBI’s Project TRADE (Training, Restitution, Apprenticeship, Development, Education) for adult offenders. “We have learned that you can give a person a job they may quit tomorrow, but if you teach them a skill, they will have it for a lifetime,” he said. Other witnesses included Harley G. Lappin, director of the Federal Bureau of Prisons; Phil Holmes, vice president of career development at Goodwill Industries; and Dr. James Austin, president of the JFA Institute. HBI also offers training for adjudicated youth through its Project CRAFT (Community, Restitution, Apprenticeship-Focused Training). As the workforce development arm of NAHB, HBI has been able to directly connect graduates of its training programs for those involved in the justice system with employers and industry jobs, dramatically reducing recidivism rates. For more information on Project TRADE or Project CRAFT, e-mail Dennis Torbett at HBI, or call him at 800-795-7955 x8908. NAHB, NAACP, NEA Symposium to Address Affordable HousingNAHB, the NAACP and the National Education Association (NEA) will co-host a symposium on housing affordability in November to develop a broad national coalition that understands and voices support for housing issues at the local level. Housing organizations, civil rights groups, labor organizations, business groups, non-profit organizations and representatives of local, state and federal government attending the symposium will compile a tool box of techniques and programs that local coalitions can use to help improve housing affordability. The symposium will be held at the Marvin Center on the campus of George Washington University in Washington, D.C. on Nov. 5-6. The policy recommendations developed at the symposium and endorsed by the participating organizations will be forwarded to the policy community, key government agencies, and those institutions — public and private — that are best positioned to act on them. NAHB has long been committed to providing housing for Americans across the economic spectrum. In March, NAHB and the NAACP co-hosted a roundtable discussion on housing affordability. The participants — leaders of some of the nation’s leading housing organizations — considered the causes of the problem and potential responses. The roundtable served as an organizing session for the larger symposium next month. For more information or to attend, e-mail Blake Smith at NAHB, or call him at 800-368-5242 x8583. Danze Minimalist Faucet Design Reflects Elegance
Creating a room that offers serenity is one of the hottest trends in the bath today. To help home owners achieve the minimalist style perfect for that relaxing retreat, Danze has introduced its Trim Line faucets — smaller scale variations of its contemporary collections to reflect peaceful elegance. The Parma Trim Line, Sirius Trim Line and Sonora Trim Line lavatory faucets follow the same sculptural styling of the collections on which they were based. Yet they are sleeker and more understated, and with their refined scale, each offers a grace and style to perfectly complement a minimalist design aesthetic in the bath or powder room. “Minimalist style gets its beauty from simple lines and architectural forms that maximize space,” said Jeff Pratt, vice president of sales for Danze, Inc. “By eliminating clutter and focusing on the room’s space and geometry, it’s easy to create an environment that is elegant and serene.” All three collections are available in chrome and brushed nickel finishes. In addition, the Sonora Trim Line faucet is available in a chrome with satin nickel finish. Danze, Inc. is a leading manufacturer and marketer of premium decorative plumbing products. Its product line includes kitchen and bath faucets, specialty faucets, showerheads, shower arms and bath accessories. Headquartered in Woodridge, Ill., Danze is a member of the National Council of the Housing Industry — The Leading Suppliers of NAHB. This feature is solely for educational and informational purposes. Nothing on this page should be construed as policy, an endorsement, warranty or guaranty by the National Association of Home Builders of the featured product or the product manufacturer. The National Association of Home Builders expressly disclaims any responsibility for any damages arising from the use, application or reliance on any information contained on this page. NAHB-Produced Programs on DIY, Fine Living and HGTVThe NAHB Production Group produces weekly television shows on DIY, Fine Living and HGTV for consumers. The following is the latest lineup: "Rock Solid" on DIY
"Assembly Required" on DIY
"I Want That" on Fine Living
HGTV Seeking ‘Dream Home’ Builder/Architect Teams HGTV is seeking developers, builders and architects to create the 2008 and 2009 dream homes for the network’s Dream Home Sweepstakes. To learn more, click here. About the NAHB Production Group The NAHB Production Group is a full-service, self-contained, media production unit creating programming for cable television, broadcast television, non-profit, museum and corporate clients. Productions range from magazine format shows for general audiences to museum-installation videos for specialized use. The production group includes award winning journalists, writers and photographers with experience in broadcast, documentary and corporate television.
Free NAHB Kit Gives Builders Back-to-Basics Tips in Navigate the Slowdown What was once expected to be a relatively mild housing slump following three years of record new home construction and sales has given way to a significant downturn. To help members navigate the uncharted waters of this slowdown, NAHB has compiled a comprehensive “Back to Basics” online toolkit — the best of the basics, the tried and true and the truly new. To access the toolkit, click here. To access the “Back to Basics” toolkit, you must be an NAHB member and have a login to www.nahb.org. To create a login, go to www.nahb.org/login or click on the log-in button on the main menu bar. For assistance, call the NAHB Member Service Center at 800-368-5242. Burlesons Are Newest Major Donors to Endowment
“NAHB has helped me to achieve dreams I never thought were possible,” Burleson said. “I am honored to help others achieve the same dream through my gift to the National Housing Endowment. Giving to the endowment is the most effective way to help young people harness their brilliance and ambition towards strengthening our industry.” “The National Housing Endowment is very proud to have David and Brooks Burleson join our growing family and we truly appreciate their investment in the future of the housing industry,” said Gary Garczynski, endowment chairman and 2002 NAHB president. “Our new initiative, the Homebuilding Education Leadership Program, was conceived to significantly increase the number of college graduates entering the residential construction management profession over the next decade, and the Burleson’s gift will help to make that possible.” Burleson, with more than 45 years in home building, has a long history of giving back to the industry through his service to NAHB throughout his career. He served four terms as a National Vice President, was the chairman of the State and Local Government Affairs Committee and has been a member of the NAHB Board of Directors for more than 40 years and the Executive Board for more than 20 years. He is currently on the Nominations Committee. Community Service Award Entries Due by Nov. 12NAHB and the National Housing Endowment invite builders, remodelers and developers to submit entries for the community service award recognizing their philanthropic work throughout the year. The National Housing Endowment Builder Achievement Award for Outstanding Community Service honors NAHB members who demonstrate an exceptional commitment to bettering their communities and promoting the spirit of giving so prevalent in the home building industry. “This award continually showcases the best of our industry,” said Gary Garczynski, endowment chairman and 2002 NAHB president. “Now in its third year, the award winners serve as a source of inspiration to both our membership and the public at large.” Entries Are Due Nov. 12 The award, which will be presented during the 2008 International Builders’ Show in Orlando, will honor eight winners, including Gold, Silver, Bronze and five honorable mentions. Winners will receive a donation to the charity of their choice:
Award Qualifications To be considered for the award, the community service project should be completed between Jan. 1 and Nov. 12 of this year. In addition, the project:
A complete award description and entry form is available on the NAHB Web site at www.nahb.org/builderachievement, or on the endowment Web site at www.nationalhousingendowment.org. For more information, e-mail Gwyn Donohue at NAHB, or call her at 800-368-5242 x8447. Students, Apply for Scholarships to Attend IBS by Nov. 15The National Housing Endowment and the Home Builders Institute (HBI), the workforce development arm of NAHB, are offering the International Builders’ Show Scholarship to help NAHB Student Chapter members attending the International Builders’ Show (IBS) offset their travel and attendance expenses. Student attendance at IBS has proven to be instrumental in helping students learn and prepare for a career in the home building industry. To be considered for funding, a student must meet the following qualifications:
Electronic format applications are available on the NAHB Web site by clicking here. Applications must be submitted online by midnight on Nov. 15. Individual student members may apply for up to $500, which will not be matched. State or local builders associations may apply for up to $2,500 to match and distribute to their local NAHB Student Chapter. Selected recipients will be notified by e-mail before Dec. 7 and funds will be distributed in early January 2008. Student Chapters The NAHB Student Chapters program, administered by HBI, helps to enrich the educational experiences of more than 4,000 students enrolled in construction-related studies. High schools, vocational and technical schools, community colleges (two-year programs), universities (four-year programs) and Job Corps centers across the country all have chapters. Endowment Scholarship Programs The endowment administers 12 scholarship programs and awards more than $400,000 each year to students pursuing careers in residential construction and related fields. For more information, visit the endowment Web site at www.nationalhousingendowment.org. End Public Speaking Anxiety With ‘Spokesperson Training'The number-one fear of most people is public speaking, comedian Jerry Seinfeld once said, citing a number of studies. Death, he added, is number two. “That means to the average person, if you have to go to a funeral, you're better off in the casket than doing the eulogy," Seinfeld quipped. Public speaking does not have to be a stressful experience for NAHB members who can learn how to confidently prepare and deliver dynamic presentations to any audience by taking NAHB’s “Presentation Skills” seminar, which teaches attendees how to organize and deliver a speech and presentation with accompanying question and answer sessions. “Presentation Skills” is part of the popular “Spokesperson Training” program. Sessions Available at the International Builders’ Show Registration is now open for ”Presentation Skills” sessions being held at |