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Worst of Housing Downturn to End by Mid-2007
Although they disagreed somewhat on the outlook for interest rates and the extent to which markedly slower home price appreciation will affect consumer spending, economists at NAHB’s 2006 Fall Construction Forecast Conference in Washington, D.C. on Oct. 25 shared the view that the current housing downturn is unlikely to push the nation’s economy into a recession and will begin to dissipate fairly quickly, by the middle of 2007, with the balance between housing supply and demand considerably improved.
A faster-than-anticipated decline in housing following its unsustainable boom during the past three years has become a major drag on U.S. economic growth, said David Seiders, NAHB’s chief economist, and it is likely to subtract about a full percentage point from the Gross Domestic Product during the second half of this year and half that amount during the opening quarter of 2007.
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