|
Downswing Will Not Drag Economy Into Recession
Looking a bit rougher than the soft landing housing analysts had been expecting, the current housing downswing is unlikely to lead to economic calamity — largely because interest rates are historically low, the overall economy still is moving ahead and builders are stepping up efforts to get their unsold inventories under control, according to economists participating in a teleconference hosted by NAHB on Sept. 27.
NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders said that he is forecasting an 11.5% decline in housing starts this year, followed by another 11.7% drop in 2007. Housing should hit bottom by the middle of next year, and will be approaching a demographically-based trend production level of about 2 million units in 2008 (including manufactured homes).
|
