Nation's Building News Online

Housing Market Index for September Finds Builder Confidence Down, But Not Out

Following a strong upward bump in August, builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes has edged down this month but remains in the high range that has persisted for the past year, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

The seasonally adjusted monthly gauge of builder sentiment registered a 68 for September, down three points from the previous month, when the index climbed four points.

“This is exactly on par with where the index stood a year ago, and shows that, even in the midst of a particularly devastating hurricane season, builder confidence has remained essentially unshaken,” said NAHB President Bobby Rayburn.

“Favorable financing conditions, sound house-price performance and reviving consumer confidence continue to propel the single-family market,” agreed NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. “Builders are still reporting healthy demand for new homes across most markets, and that bodes well for sales in coming months.”

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The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI is derived from a monthly survey of builders that NAHB has been conducting for almost 20 years. Home builders are asked to rate current sales of single-family homes, the traffic of prospective buyers and their expectations for sales over the next six months.

The first two of those component indexes dropped four points this month, to 73 and 52, respectively. Sales expectations were at 73, a three-point decline from August. All three were within close range of their standings in September of 2003.

Any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

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Get the latest forecasts on housing starts, project budgets and other economic bellwethers of the housing industry at NAHB's Fall Construction Forecast Conference at the National Housing Center in Washington, D.C. on Oct. 27. Click here for more information and to register.

Coming Oct. 1: HousingEconomics Online

HousingEconomics Online is the new online publication from the leading economists at NAHB.

Available Oct. 1 at BuilderBooks.com, HousingEconomics Online combines unique scientific research with practical applications providing insights that are original, useful and written in terms that builders, manufacturers and housing finance professionals can understand and apply to their own businesses.

This interactive Web site at the executive level provides critical data and information quickly, easily and frequently and includes the following features:

• Home Builders Forecast
• The Desktop Analyst
• Dave Seiders’ Report
• Housing Activity
• Housing Policy Focus
• Multifamily Housing Quarterly
• Housing Market Statistics

For more details, go to HousingEconomics Online at BuilderBooks.com.

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