“Largely as a result of immigration, minorities accounted for 27% of households in 2003 and will contribute at least two-thirds of net household growth in the coming decades,” according to Nicolas Retsinas, director of the center.
Minorities are projected to account for 34% of all U.S. households by 2020, the Harvard study finds, and will help to offset losses of white household heads aged 35 to 54 as those born during the baby boom move into the 55-74 age group. Minority household growth will contribute significantly to growth in household heads aged 55 to 74 as well.
The report adds that the minority share of renter households surged from 31% to 39% over the 1990s, preventing the number of renter households from falling.
And minorities accounted for fully two out of every five net new home owners from 1994-2003, the report says. “Despite these strong gains, though, minority homeownership rates still lag those of whites by nearly 25 percentage points. Narrowing this persistent gap remains a challenge for both the government and the mortgage finance industry.”
Women have also become “a more powerful presence in the housing markets,” according to Harvard researchers. The number of households headed by unmarried women increased by almost 10 million between 1980 and 2000, and at the same time the median contribution of wives’ earnings to dual-earner households rose from 30% to 37%.
“As a result, unmarried women now head a larger share of households and married women make larger contributions to household income than ever before,” the report says.
However, “while women and minorities make up increasing shares of middle-income households, they are still over-represented in the lowest-income category. The incidence of housing problems is therefore higher among minorities than whites and among unmarried women than unmarried men of comparable age.”
The Harvard report is bullish on prospects for housing as the economy enters a period of more robust growth because “housing construction appears to be in line with long-run demand, and a strengthening economy should support house prices. In addition, changes in the housing finance system have made markets more resilient and better able to adjust quickly to interest-rate movements.”
As interest rates rise gradually, “construction should hold near its current pace and house price inflation moderate rather than turn negative,” the Joint Center predicts. “If job growth falters or interest rates spike, however, housing could be in for a rougher ride.”
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