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Week of April 26, 2004

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* New Single-Family Home Sales Set Record in March
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Robust Household Growth Predicted for Next Ten Years

Strong demographic and minority household growth in the coming decade is “very positive news” that will fuel robust demand for housing, Eric Belsky, executive director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University, told a packed audience at NAHB’s construction forecast conference on April 21.

“We expect household growth of 13.4 million between 2005 and 2014 with the immigration skewed to younger households,” said Belsky. “This means that the starter home market will have a stronger base.”

Based on the latest U.S. Census figures, Belsky predicted that new immigration will fall in the 1.2-1.3 million annual range, “creating about two million more households over the next decade than we previously thought.”

The new household formations will be heavily tilted towards Hispanics and Asians. “Minorities accounted for 40% of the growth in home owners over the last 10 years and they will dominate household growth in the coming years,” said Belsky.

Households headed by unmarried women also exhibited strong gains during the past decade, swelling their homeownership ranks by five million since 1993.


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“The growth in minorities and women-headed households is an important part of the entry-level market and should keep prices at reasonably affordable levels,” Belsky said.

Yet, affordability remains a major concern, as Belsky noted that 30%-40% of minority households are spending more than half their income on housing.

“People are willing to pay up because they get back more — a sense of belonging to their community. Affordability is a major public policy issue, but it won’t do in housing,” he said.

Belsky also said that a diverse housing finance system offering a variety of adjustable rate mortgages and automated loan underwriting has helped to boost minority loan approvals by as much as 30% and will enable future home buyers to withstand changes in interest rates.

Noting that scores of counties across the nation have added more than a quarter of their housing stock over the last 10-year period, Belsky added that NIMBYism will remain a problem for builders in the future.

“The hottest topic in Cambridge, MA, is smart growth,” he said. “People don’t like housing built wherever they are. They don’t want added traffic and they want to keep the character of their community. This makes for an inelastic supply of housing.”

Photo by Morris Semiatin
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