The forecasts from Seiders and Witten both point to continued growth in jobs being created through 2004, which will help push the unemployment rate down.
Source: Witten Advisors, Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; forecast from Economy.com and National Association for Business Economics
Presenting some cause for concern, multifamily starts for buildings with five or more units have continued steadily at about 300,000 units annually, even in the face of near-record vacancy rates. And, as renters who’d rather be owners left their rental units and bought homes at record-low mortgage rates last year, the market has not been absorbing all the vacant units — both newly-vacant apartments and the new rental units being built.
That situation, says Witten, has been improving, but the supply of apartments continues to outpace demand, as investors continue to fund new multifamily development.
Witten sees a return to balance between supply and demand by the end of this year.
He identified Houston, Atlanta, Dallas, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. as the cities he expects to have the largest number of rental apartments started in the coming year. But he sees Jacksonville, FL, Los Angeles and Miami as the most favorable cities for rental development.
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