I have been amazed by the number of people who have been quoting the studies mentioned above without even having read them.
These two studies have generated quite a bit of press that does not question the validity of the methodology they used to reach their findings, so allow me to make a few observations.
In the study claiming to find a link between “sprawl” and obesity, a “sprawl” index was created based on population density and connectivity of the street networks of 448 counties. Density was based on a few measurements of the persons per square mile in the entire county. Street connectivity was based on the average block size and the percentage of small blocks. Omitted in the analysis is any discussion of land use mixes and average lot sizes. And it doesn’t take a PhD. researcher to know that the population densities and street block lengths of rural counties are going to be dramatically different from those in urban counties — but what has that got to do with “sprawl?”
Harvard researchers used a similarly unscientific approach when they recently attempted to rank metro areas by their degree of “sprawl.” Our metro area, the Greensboro/ Winston-Salem/ High Point MA, was ranked second most “sprawling” by their index. This metro area is made up primarily of rural counties and has only two counties that can be considered urban. These rural counties are characterized by low-density population, larger tracts of undeveloped land and few urbanized areas. Making comparisons — based on factors such as population density and public transit use — between these undeveloped, rural counties and highly urbanized regions such as Washington D.C., Boston or New York, and then drawing conclusions about the degree of “sprawl” in these areas makes one seriously wonder about the motives of the researchers.
In these days of fast and accessible information, pseudo research and distorted news may be an inevitability we are just going to have to learn to live with. But my concern is over what happens when this kind of information falls into the hands of local government. Is my local government going to act responsibly and treat this information with the skepticism it deserves? Or is it going to use it to justify decisions that can have a dramatic impact upon our property, our businesses and our lives?
Public policy and ordinances should be based on sound information and good science. They should be clear and leave little room for misinterpretation. Flawed and fuzzy science is irresponsible but can be ignored; flawed and fuzzy laws based on bad science, unfortunately, cannot.
Chuck Folds is the government affairs director for the Home Builders Association of Winston-Salem, NC.
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