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Week of November 3, 2003

Front Page

Housing Forum

* ‘Sprawl’ Is Just Another Product of Flawed and Fuzzy Thinking

Housing Politics

* Wildfires Spur Passage of ‘Healthy Forests’ Bill in the Senate

Housing and Economics

* September Closes Record Quarter for New Home Sales
* Home Resales Surprisingly Strong in September
* Consolidation Trend Substantial, But Opportunities to Remain for Smaller Builders
* Jobs Picture Provides a Shaky Foundation for Housing Forecasts
* Baby Boomers Driving Climb in Affluent Households

Multifamily

* Apartment Building Remains Healthy Despite Negative Factors
* Application Deadline Extended for Pillars of the Industry Awards

Business Management

* Take a Bite Out of Job Site Crime

Small Builders and Remodelers

* Remodelers Weigh Pluses and Minuses of Growing the Business
* Businesses Need to Protect Themselves Against Fraud
* Edward McGowan Inducted into Remodeling Hall of Fame

State and Local

* Awards Recognize Public Officials for Support of Housing

Smart Growth

* Study Skeptical About Solving Transportation Woes Through High-Density Development

Research

* Pilot Project Demonstrates How to Reduce Energy Costs By 20 Percent

Member Dividends

* Builder 20 Club Helps Oklahoma Builders Grow...Big Time

Labor

* Officials Visit Successful Project CRAFT Training Site in Nashville

Building News Coast To Coast

Association News & Events

* TBA President Discusses Affordable Housing on The 700 Club
* Boost Your Marketing Through These Awards Programs
* Calendar of Events

NBN Back Issues

 

‘Sprawl’ Is Just Another Product of Flawed and Fuzzy Thinking

By Chuck Folds

Recently, a national organization called Smart Growth America announced the release of a study that it claims links “sprawl” to obesity. This is the same group that earlier this year announced another study ranking the Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point metro area as the second most “sprawling” in the nation.

Rutgers and Harvard professors conducted the two studies, respectively. Those institutions confer a certain amount of credibility upon the researchers, even if their methodology is flawed. But their credibility becomes more questionable when a group, such as Smart Growth America, is allowed to misinterpret the findings and issue a press release that does the same. Major print media, such as USA Today and the Washington Post, then pick up on these press releases without taking the time to read the actual research. And that results in such headlines as the Urban Land Institute’s “Study Links Sprawl to Obesity,” a conclusion that the author did not include in his findings.

Don’t be influenced by any press you might read on a particular study on “sprawl” reaching a conclusion about anything. “Sprawl” is an ill-defined term that provokes emotional reactions but it is rarely based on any solid data or quantitative criteria that make any real sense. Its use should immediately raise a red flag. Obtain a copy of the research and read it yourself. Otherwise, you may very well be relying on a reporter's interpretation of a press release provided by an advocacy group that has skewed the findings to further its own position.


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I have been amazed by the number of people who have been quoting the studies mentioned above without even having read them.

These two studies have generated quite a bit of press that does not question the validity of the methodology they used to reach their findings, so allow me to make a few observations.

In the study claiming to find a link between “sprawl” and obesity, a “sprawl” index was created based on population density and connectivity of the street networks of 448 counties. Density was based on a few measurements of the persons per square mile in the entire county. Street connectivity was based on the average block size and the percentage of small blocks. Omitted in the analysis is any discussion of land use mixes and average lot sizes. And it doesn’t take a PhD. researcher to know that the population densities and street block lengths of rural counties are going to be dramatically different from those in urban counties — but what has that got to do with “sprawl?”

Harvard researchers used a similarly unscientific approach when they recently attempted to rank metro areas by their degree of “sprawl.” Our metro area, the Greensboro/ Winston-Salem/ High Point MA, was ranked second most “sprawling” by their index. This metro area is made up primarily of rural counties and has only two counties that can be considered urban. These rural counties are characterized by low-density population, larger tracts of undeveloped land and few urbanized areas. Making comparisons — based on factors such as population density and public transit use — between these undeveloped, rural counties and highly urbanized regions such as Washington D.C., Boston or New York, and then drawing conclusions about the degree of “sprawl” in these areas makes one seriously wonder about the motives of the researchers.

In these days of fast and accessible information, pseudo research and distorted news may be an inevitability we are just going to have to learn to live with. But my concern is over what happens when this kind of information falls into the hands of local government. Is my local government going to act responsibly and treat this information with the skepticism it deserves? Or is it going to use it to justify decisions that can have a dramatic impact upon our property, our businesses and our lives?

Public policy and ordinances should be based on sound information and good science. They should be clear and leave little room for misinterpretation. Flawed and fuzzy science is irresponsible but can be ignored; flawed and fuzzy laws based on bad science, unfortunately, cannot.

Chuck Folds is the government affairs director for the Home Builders Association of Winston-Salem, NC.
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