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Nursing Homes on the Decline

The need for nursing homes for today’s aging World War-II baby boomers is at least 20 years away, and won’t peak until after 2030, according to a research study by AARP.

A 2002 study by AARP's Public Policy Institute, “Before the Boom: Trends in Long-Term Supportive Services for Older Americans With Disabilities,” revealed 14 trends that are reshaping this sector of the industry, with repercussions for the types of seniors housing that will be needed over the next few decades.

Among the trends are:

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• The use of nursing homes has declined substantially, especially among persons aged 75 and older.
• Growth in the older population, which was heavily skewed toward the 75 and older age categories in the last decade, will shift to the “younger old” in the next two decades.
• Disability rates among older persons have declined substantially.
• The narrowing ratio of men to women in old age has contributed to the declining use of institutional care and will likely continue to do so over the next few decades.
• Older persons who reach the high-risk years of 75 and older during the next two decades will have more adult children than people that age previously had.
• Assisted living has grown substantially over the past decade.

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