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Eye on the Economy

David F. Seiders, NAHB Chief Economist

Economic growth accelerates in the third quarter amidst another surge in productivity growth …

Growth of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) accelerated to a 7.2% pace (annual rate) in the third quarter, the fastest expansion in nearly 20 years. Incredibly, this rapid growth in output reflected acceleration of productivity growth (output per hour) to about 8%, as payroll employment eroded further. Thus, the specter of a job-losing economic recovery that began around the end of 2001 continues to haunt the economic and political scene.

How long can this go on? It’s perfectly clear that the tremendous monetary stimulus delivered by the Federal Reserve, along with the tremendous fiscal stimulus delivered by the recently enacted tax-cut legislation and the acceleration of federal spending on defense and security, have successfully propelled spending by households and businesses as well as by the government. But, so far, the pickup in business spending has been concentrated in investment in capital equipment and software (productivity enhancing outlays) rather than in hiring.

Happily, there have been recent signs of stabilization, and tentative signs of revival, in the U.S. labor markets. The employment report for October showed an encouraging increase in payroll employment, and weekly data on claims for unemployment compensation have been looking somewhat better for some time. NAHB’s forecasts show healthy and sustained job growth starting late this year, even as GDP growth recedes to a more-sustainable pace. It must be admitted, of course, that the dimensions of the productivity phenomenon are extremely hard to peg.

Consumer confidence moves up in October as the job market shows signs of life …

Consumer confidence (Conference Board series) picked up in October, and the University of Michigan’s measure of consumer sentiment showed a similar pattern. Even so, these indicators hardly reflected the exuberance of consumer spending in the third-quarter GDP accounts. Instead, the improvements in confidence/sentiment reflected the beginnings of improvement in the job market.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan frequently stresses that what consumers do is much more important than what they say. Consumers are now spending aggressively, and history suggests that the confidence/sentiment measures will rise much more decisively as the economic expansion pulls the job market forward.

The Fed holds short-term rates steady and reassures the bond markets …

The Federal Reserve held its target for the federal funds rate steady (at 1%) at the Oct. 28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a decision that was expected by virtually all observers of the monetary policy scene. Furthermore, the decision was unanimous, showing a refreshing lack of defectors on Greenspan’s FOMC despite the presence of a few traditional anti-inflation "hawks" on the committee.

Prior to the October FOMC meeting, some concerns had been building in securities markets about the durability of the Fed’s previously announced commitment to an extended period of monetary stability, in view of the obvious third-quarter surge in economic growth and the glimmers of improvement in the job market since the previous meeting. But the Fed put out a market-friendly public statement on Oct. 28 that differed from the previous statement in only one respect — an assessment that the job market is "stabilizing" rather than "weakening." Most important, the Fed maintained a risk statement slanted toward weakness (because of ongoing concern about potential price deflation) and stood by its belief that "policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period."

The Fed’s words and actions on Oct. 28 provoked an immediate "relief rally" in the bond and mortgage securities markets and reinforced expectations for an extended period of monetary stability. NAHB’s forecasts still show a 1% federal funds rate until late next year, with only a modest rise in long-term rates before then.

Home sales surge to new records in the third quarter as 2003 heads toward uncharted territory …

Sales of both new and existing homes were robust in September, hitting a combined annual rate of 7.835 million units — easily a record pace. Indeed, the third quarter as a whole also was an all-time high for both segments of the market, easily surpassing the previous record that was set in the second quarter of this year. It’s no wonder that the housing production component of GDP, which includes commissions on home sales, surged to a 20% growth rate in the third quarter.

The third-quarter surge in home sales may have included a temporary boost, as some "fence sitters" may have jumped into the market after mortgage interest rates bounced off their cyclical lows in June. But surveys of single-family builders and mortgage lenders (conducted by NAHB and the Mortgage Bankers Association, respectively) show ongoing strength in home buyer demand through October. While some near-term fade in sales seems likely from the astounding third-quarter pace, there’s little doubt that 2003 will turn out to be a record year for home sales in the U.S.

The homeownership rate hits a new record while rental vacancy rates continue to climb …

The U.S. homeownership rate hit a record 68.4% in the third quarter, as the number of owner-occupied housing units surged to 72.2 million. As usual, the homeownership rate was highest for non-Hispanic white households (75.7%) and lowest for Hispanic/Latino households (46.1%). Various racial and ethnic homeownership "gaps" actually have widened as the rate for whites has increased aggressively.

Surging home sales and rising homeownership continue to weaken conditions in the rental housing market. The overall rental vacancy rate climbed to a record 9.9% in the third quarter, and the rate for buildings with five or more units rose to a near-record 11.5%. Indeed, the drain of households from renting to ownership has been reducing the absolute number of renters despite healthy levels of household formation. No wonder landlords across the country are offering rent concessions and other incentives to retain and attract renters.

NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders analyzes the economy from the point of view of the housing market every other week in the free e-newsletter, “Eye on the Economy.” The preceding is a reissue of his Nov. 5 edition. To subcribe to “Eye on the Economy,” click here.

Want more economic information? Find it in our publications.

Find more in-depth information in our three economics publications, Home Builders Forecast, Housing Market Statistics and Housing Economics. All are availaible by subscription. 

  • Home Builders Forecast includes analysis of single-family and multifamily residential activities, residential remodeling and the full range of nonresidential construction as well as the macroeconomic factors such as GDP, employment and interest rates that drive construction. If your business depends on reliable estimates of housing starts, construction spending and remodeling activity, Home Builders Forecast is designed to meet your needs.
  • Housing Market Statistics contains an overview of important developments and trends that serves as an executive summary of the current industry situation. It also contains annotated charts depicting movements in key indicators and tables providing monthly, quarterly and annual data for more than 250 variables.
  • Housing Economics provides a rigorous monthly overview of the economy, along with monthly data for more than 100 local markets and in-depth analyses of the niches and nuances of home building markets. Available online or in print, it is written in terms that builders, manufacturers and housing finance professionals can understand and apply to their own businesses.

To learn more or to order any of these three NAHB economic publications, visit the Economics Publications Information section of the NAHB Web site or call 800-223-2665.

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Log in today to register for educational seminars, meetings and networking events; find important economic and housing data; and learn the latest developments in NAHB’s efforts to promote housing. It’s all available to you 24 hours a day at www.nahb.org. Just click the "Member Log In" button to get started.

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