|
The suburbs were up 17% last year. Building in the city was down 20%-22%, mostly due to an over-abundance of new inventory and also a backlash from 9/11 in the high-rise market. That’s now starting to come back. The suburbs have continued strong without a hiccup. Collectively for the city and suburbs, we’re projecting a marginal decline of about 1%-5% this year — not bad after two record-setting years.
Biggest source of concern for builders:
Slow job growth is the main concern, and could have a big impact. Second on the list is the availability of land for development, and third would be government regulations. We have a unique market because there are more taxing bodies and separate municipalities here than in any other U.S. metro area. And on top of that are the state and federal regulatory levels.
Market trends:
The strongest segment of the marketplace is for first-time home buyers. A big sub-section of that is immigrants. We attribute this to the revolution that’s taken place in mortgage financing. Low rates have created a whole new group of qualified home buyers.
Aging baby boomers are also either doing trade-ups or moving to smaller homes now that the kids are gone, and that is fueling the marketplace. Another trend is the rapid increase in active-adult communities — both age-restricted and non- for both single-family detached and multifamily.
Remodeling has been exceptionally strong over the last 24 months, and will continue to be, thanks again to the revolution in mortgage refinancing and home equity conversions. We have members involved in remodeling whose business has never been better.
| 
